Managing Uncertainty: The Number 1 Challenge Facing Leaders in Government

If on 1 January 2020, had you been asked to state the trends, opportunities and challenges that lay ahead over the coming five years, you would likely have been proved wrong within several months, as our borders closed, as we found ourselves working from home (and teaching), social distancing, wearing masks, seeing businesses wiped out and jobs disappearing, and most sadly, COVID-19 related deaths. On the global stage, we have seen major war, political and civil upheaval, and significant advancements in technology. Closer to home, the cost of living, the housing affordability, and deepening divisions mark our landscape.

Now, as we step across the line that marks the midway point of this decade. What challenges and opportunities lay in front to close out the next five years?

And of course, the answer is "we don't know". Had you been good at predicting the future, you would not be reading this article, having bought Bitcoin and being somewhere far more exotic than you find yourself right now (☹).

With much certainty, I contend that managing uncertainty is a critical leadership capability and will remain so for the remainder of this decade and beyond. The competencies that sit within this capability are often neglected when it comes to leadership development. The one wager that perhaps one can predicted with much certainty, is that artificial intelligence will cause massive disruption to society. To what extent, when and how though is quite the mystery.

Leaders in government should ponder the short, medium and long term with respect to uncertainty, and perhaps reflect upon one of history's most famous questions: what is to be done?

First, develop the competencies that are nested within managing uncertainty. And second, implement the relevant techniques and tools. What do these competencies, techniques and tools look like?

When we think about this, we think about the following three pillars. Together, they form a systematic approach that equips leaders with both the mindset and practical tools needed to navigate uncertainty effectively. The journey starts with framing uncertainty in a way we can meaningfully work with, moves through developing adaptable plans, and culminates in real-world application and continuous evolution.

Pillar One: Frame the uncertainty. This involves diagnosing complex challenges through root cause analysis, distinguishing between different types of uncertainty, and creating structured approaches to understand what we know, what we don't know, and what we can't know. By systematically breaking down uncertainty, leaders can focus their efforts where they'll have the most impact.

Pillar Two: Adaptive planning. This involves developing flexible strategies that can evolve with changing circumstances while maintaining alignment with core objectives. Leaders learn to create robust yet adaptable plans, manage risks effectively, and build in clear decision points for course correction. This ensures government initiatives can respond to change without losing sight of their fundamental purpose.

Pillar Three: Application and adaptation. This involves executing plans while continuously learning and evolving. Leaders develop the capability to implement strategies in dynamic environments, harness unexpected opportunities, and build resilient teams that can thrive in uncertainty. This creates a sustainable approach to managing ongoing change in government organisations.

If there is one key takeaway in this article it’s this:

To do nothing, and wait to see what happens, is a fatal error.

Managing uncertainty isn't just another leadership buzzword—it's a fundamental capability that government leaders must develop to navigate our increasingly complex environment. As we move deeper into this decade of unprecedented change, the ability to systematically approach uncertainty, create adaptive strategies, and lead teams through dynamic environments will separate effective leaders from the rest. The question isn't whether uncertainty will challenge your leadership—it's whether you'll be prepared when it does.

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